Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.034419 0.039225 0.044490 0.050691 0.057799 0.065701 0.075163
2025-01-19 0.025579 0.031748 0.039126 0.048621 0.060549 0.075078 0.094183
2025-01-26 0.022326 0.029356 0.038279 0.050481 0.066803 0.087981 0.117704
2025-02-02 0.020049 0.027632 0.037739 0.052266 0.072731 0.100715 0.142189
2025-02-09 0.018299 0.026267 0.037342 0.053965 0.078467 0.113543 0.168079
2025-02-16 0.016313 0.024265 0.035734 0.053618 0.081053 0.121959 0.188335
2025-02-23 0.014852 0.022820 0.034708 0.053905 0.084458 0.131756 0.211598
2025-03-02 0.013384 0.021181 0.033177 0.053177 0.086100 0.138857 0.231221
2025-03-09 0.012518 0.020375 0.032824 0.054222 0.090602 0.150863 0.260138
2025-03-16 0.011443 0.019112 0.031593 0.053659 0.092309 0.158325 0.282006
2025-03-23 0.010924 0.018712 0.031725 0.055376 0.098036 0.173143 0.318476
2025-03-30 0.009885 0.017318 0.030036 0.053731 0.097615 0.177017 0.335219
2025-04-06 0.009065 0.016250 0.028842 0.052905 0.098686 0.183871 0.358765
2025-04-13 0.008146 0.014921 0.027068 0.050839 0.097239 0.185899 0.373199
2025-04-20 0.007884 0.014771 0.027413 0.052782 0.103645 0.203585 0.421172
2025-04-27 0.007630 0.014608 0.027712 0.054652 0.110082 0.221981 0.472840
2025-05-04 0.007382 0.014430 0.027960 0.056432 0.116504 0.240997 0.528145
2025-05-11 0.006908 0.013765 0.027194 0.056068 0.118410 0.250772 0.564211
2025-05-18 0.006548 0.013294 0.026772 0.056369 0.121748 0.263925 0.609518
2025-05-25 0.006111 0.012628 0.025892 0.055606 0.122673 0.271860 0.643577
2025-06-01 0.005886 0.012386 0.025870 0.056702 0.127850 0.289856 0.703975
2025-06-08 0.005527 0.011825 0.025124 0.056112 0.129105 0.298954 0.743577
2025-06-15 0.005397 0.011751 0.025420 0.057910 0.136121 0.322329 0.822227